Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Umag, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 22 July 2025, Tuesday


	Francesco Passaro		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.91	1.85	Watch
	1.9	1.88	Watch
	1.94	1.94
	2.01	1.77	Watch
	1.95	1.85	Watch
	1.93	1.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.38)	1.87 ↑ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesco Passaro
49.1%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

60.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Passaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francesco Passaro's performance.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Camilo Ugo Carabelli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Passaro than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francesco Passaro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Camilo Ugo Carabelli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Francesco Passaro - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Passaro will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Passaro: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francesco Passaro will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Passaro is ranked ATP: 121. Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 51.

Recent performances by Passaro have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ugo Carabelli is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ugo Carabelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Passaro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Francesco Passaro - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.75%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Passaro
ATP Umag
20.07.25	Matej Dodig - Francesco Passaro	1:2 ✺
ATP Gstaad
17.07.25	Francesco Passaro - Jerome Kym	0:2 ✺
15.07.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
13.07.25	Francesco Passaro - Gonzalo Bueno	2:0 ✺
12.07.25	Francesco Passaro - Mika Brunold	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWW
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Bastad
19.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
18.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
17.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:1 ✺
16.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Christian Garin	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Marcos Giron - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
26.07.22	Francesco Passaro - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1

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