Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: All England Club (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Francis Tiafoe		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.83	1.95
	1.94	1.86
	1.88	2.05
	1.79	2.02	Watch
	1.85	2.01
	1.89	2.04	Watch
	1.90	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.75)	1.97 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 41.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
51.3%

Alexander Bublik
48.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78%	0%	22%

Francis Tiafoe - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (1.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 30.5 Games - over (1.09) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francis Tiafoe will win (32 of 40 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.6% – 92.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 19. Bublik is ranked ATP: 11.

Tiafoe is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Bublik has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bublik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Tiafoe will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Francis Tiafoe - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 54.2%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Alexander Bublik - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 45.8%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jan Choinski	3:1 ✺
01.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Terence Atmane	3:1 ✺
ATP Mallorca
24.06.26	Francis Tiafoe - Ethan Quinn	Canceled
ATP Halle
21.06.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
20.06.26	Daniel Altmaier - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WW?WW
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.26	Kyrian Jacquet - Alexander Bublik	0:3 ✺
30.06.26	Thanasi Kokkinakis - Alexander Bublik	2:3 ✺
ATP Halle
16.06.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
ATP Stuttgart
13.06.26	Alexander Bublik - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
12.06.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Paris
30.10.23	Francis Tiafoe - Alexander Bublik	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.22	Francis Tiafoe - Alexander Bublik	3:1
ATP Eastbourne
20.06.22	Francis Tiafoe - Alexander Bublik	1:2
ATP Washington
30.07.19	Francis Tiafoe - Alexander Bublik	2:0

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