Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	Brandon Nakashima		Marin Cilic

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.57	2.35	Watch
	1.6	2.3	Watch
	1.72	2.23
	1.66	2.17	Watch
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.63	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.62)	2.26 ↑ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
58%

Marin Cilic
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Marin Cilic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brandon Nakashima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marin Cilic than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marin Cilic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55%	0%	45%

Brandon Nakashima - Marin Cilic Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Nakashima will win (votes: 11 - 55%). Cilic will win (votes: 9 - 45%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakashima: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 2 - 50%). Cilic (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nakashima is ranked ATP: 30. Cilic is ranked ATP: 49.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Nakashima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nakashima won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Brandon Nakashima - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
27.02.26	Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
26.02.26	Valentin Vacherot - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Brandon Nakashima - Patrick Kypson	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLWW
- Marin Cilic
ATP Miami
19.03.26	Marin Cilic - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Zachary Svajda - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
17.02.26	Brandon Nakashima - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
ATP Dallas
14.02.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Jack Pinnington Jones - Marin Cilic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Delray Beach
17.02.26	Brandon Nakashima - Marin Cilic	2:0
ATP Hangzhou
23.09.24	Marin Cilic - Brandon Nakashima	2:0

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