Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday


	Francisco Comesana		Arthur Fils

	1	2
	4.5	1.2	Watch
	4.2	1.22	Watch
	4.6	1.18	Watch
	5.16	1.19
	4.81	1.18	Watch
	4	1.25	Watch
	4.34	1.23	Watch
	4.65	1.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.53 ↑ (3.38)	1.2 ↓ (1.33)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francisco Comesana
21%

Arthur Fils
79%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

71.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

68.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Comesana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Francisco Comesana's form might have worsened.

Arthur Fils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arthur Fils's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francisco Comesana than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Francisco Comesana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Fils than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arthur Fils, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Francisco Comesana - Arthur Fils Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Comesana will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Fils will win (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fils: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Comesana is ranked ATP: 70. Fils is ranked ATP: 14.

Comesana is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Fils is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fils could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fils is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Comesana
ATP Madrid
23.04.25	Francisco Comesana - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
20.04.25	Francisco Comesana - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
19.04.25	Francisco Comesana - Carlos Taberner	2:0 ✺
18.04.25	Francisco Comesana - Gregoire Barrere	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Francisco Comesana - Tristan Boyer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWWW
- Arthur Fils
ATP Barcelona
19.04.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Arthur Fils	2:0 ✺
18.04.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Arthur Fils	Tsitsipas S. retired ✺
16.04.25	Pedro Martinez Portero - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
15.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.25	Arthur Fils - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 L?WWL

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