Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Nova Gorica, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday


	Gabriele Bosio		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
	2.05	1.65
	1.85	1.85
	2.12	1.74
	2.08	1.65	Watch
	2.09	1.71
	2.03	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.85)	1.71 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gabriele Bosio
45.7%

Luca Castagnola
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gabriele Bosio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Luca Castagnola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabriele Bosio than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Gabriele Bosio - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bosio is ranked ATP: 716. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 847.

Bosio is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Castagnola has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Castagnola may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Gabriele Bosio - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Luca Castagnola - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gabriele Bosio
ITF Tournaments
17.07.26	Tomas Lanik - Gabriele Bosio	0:2 ✺
16.07.26	Maximilian Figl - Gabriele Bosio	0:2 ✺
15.07.26	Matic Dimic - Gabriele Bosio	0:2 ✺
02.07.26	Alejandro Garcia - Gabriele Bosio	2:0 ✺
01.07.26	Sergio Planella Hernandez - Gabriele Bosio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWLW
- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
17.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Menelaos Efstathiou	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Matteo Fondriest	2:0 ✺
15.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Edoardo Cherie Ligniere	2:1 ✺
08.07.26	Dominik Recek - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Lorenzo Angelini - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWLL

Gabriele Bosio - Luca Castagnola: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide