Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bonn, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday


	Gilles Arnaud Bailly		Samuele Pieri

	1	2
			Watch
	1.36	2.90
	1.41	2.80
	1.44	3.00
	1.35	2.92	Watch
	1.39	2.95	Watch
	1.38	2.81	Watch
	1.39	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.44)	2.88 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gilles Arnaud Bailly
67.5%

Samuele Pieri
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gilles Arnaud Bailly has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Samuele Pieri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gilles Arnaud Bailly than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gilles Arnaud Bailly that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samuele Pieri than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Samuele Pieri could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Samuele Pieri Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bailly is ranked ATP: 230. Pieri is ranked ATP: 400.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Bailly may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bailly could have a small edge in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Samuele Pieri - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.24%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gilles Arnaud Bailly
ATP Challenger
22.07.26	Hynek Barton - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	2:0 ✺
20.07.26	Daniel Elahi Galan - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	0:2 ✺
13.07.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Filippo Romano	1:2 ✺
08.07.26	Miguel Damas - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	2:1 ✺
06.07.26	Andres Santamarta Roig - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWLLW
- Samuele Pieri
ATP Challenger
27.07.26	Giuseppe La Vela - Samuele Pieri	1:2 ✺
26.07.26	Moritz Kudernatsch - Samuele Pieri	0:2 ✺
19.07.26	Samuele Pieri - Petr Nesterov	1:2 ✺
12.07.26	Samuele Pieri - Giorgio Tabacco	0:2 ✺
07.07.26	Martin Krumich - Samuele Pieri	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WWLLL

Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Samuele Pieri: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide