Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
			Watch
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.34	1.37
	3.49	1.31	Watch
			Watch
	3.27	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.77)	1.34 ↓ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
28.5%

Lorenzo Musetti
71.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

66.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

68.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.4%	0%	34.6%

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Mpetshi Perricard will win (votes: 17 - 65.4%). Musetti will win (votes: 9 - 34.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mpetshi Perricard: 47.1% – 83.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Mpetshi Perricard (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Musetti (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Musetti (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Musetti (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Mpetshi Perricard (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Musetti (votes: 7 - 38.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mpetshi Perricard is ranked ATP: 36. Musetti is ranked ATP: 9.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Mpetshi Perricard may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Musetti is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mpetshi Perricard won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.7:2.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 1.37 are the expected chance of winning is 66.91%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
ATP Chengdu
20.09.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:1 ✺
18.09.25	Filip Misolic - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	3:1 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
22.08.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Hamad Medjedovic - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWLLW
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Chengdu
23.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Dino Prizmic	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
03.09.25	Jannik Sinner - Lorenzo Musetti	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
26.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	3:1
ATP Wimbledon
08.07.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	3:1
ATP Stuttgart
11.06.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:0

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