Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - Final

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5


	Lorenzo Musetti		Alejandro Tabilo

	1	2
	1.22	4.33	Watch
			Watch
	1.25	3.5	Watch
	1.26	4.26
	1.26	3.88	Watch
	1.23	4.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.34)	4.06 ↑ (3.34)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
76.6%

Alejandro Tabilo
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.4%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.3%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Musetti's performance.

Alejandro Tabilo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alejandro Tabilo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	0%	6.7%

Lorenzo Musetti - Alejandro Tabilo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 2nd Set - Tabilo (2.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Musetti will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorenzo Musetti will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Tabilo (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 9. Tabilo is ranked ATP: 112.

Musetti is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tabilo is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Musetti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Musetti is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Musetti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Chengdu
22.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Dino Prizmic	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
03.09.25	Jannik Sinner - Lorenzo Musetti	3:0 ✺
01.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWLW
- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Chengdu
22.09.25	Brandon Nakashima - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Christopher OConnell - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
18.09.25	Jordan Thompson - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
17.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Lloyd Harris	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
28.01.21	Lorenzo Musetti - Alejandro Tabilo	2:0

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