Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 September 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belgium	03:45	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	03:45	HBO Max
Bulgaria	04:45	HBO Max
Croatia	03:45	HBO Max
Czech Republic	03:45	HBO Max
Denmark	03:45	HBO Max
Finland	04:45	HBO Max
France	03:45	HBO Max
Hungary	03:45	HBO Max
Moldova	04:45	HBO Max
Montenegro	03:45	HBO Max
Netherlands	03:45	HBO Max
North Macedonia	03:45	HBO Max
Norway	03:45	HBO Max
Poland	03:45	HBO Max
Romania	04:45	HBO Max
Serbia	03:45	HBO Max
Slovenia	03:45	HBO Max
Spain	03:45	HBO Max
Sweden	03:45	HBO Max


	Jannik Sinner		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	1.03	15	Watch
	1.04	11
	1.03	13	Watch
	1.04	15.96
	1.05	11.00	Watch
	1.06	9
	1.02	18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↓ (1.07)	13.28 ↑ (9.58)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jannik Sinner
92.7%

Lorenzo Musetti
7.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

89.9%

10.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	0%	36.4%

Jannik Sinner - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Sinner will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Musetti will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sinner: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sinner (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 29 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 30 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +8.5 Games - Musetti (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sinner (votes: 1 - 50%). Musetti (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Sinner is ranked ATP: 1. Musetti is ranked ATP: 10.

Sinner is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Musetti is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Sinner is the clear favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sinner won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:0. (average 1.3:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Jannik Sinner - the odds 1.07 are the expected chance of winning is 89.95%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jannik Sinner
ATP US Open
01.09.25	Jannik Sinner - Alexander Bublik	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Jannik Sinner - Denis Shapovalov	3:1 ✺
28.08.25	Jannik Sinner - Alexei Popyrin	3:0 ✺
26.08.25	Jannik Sinner - Vit Kopriva	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	Sinner J. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWW?
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP US Open
01.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Flavio Cobolli	Cobolli F. retired ✺
28.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - David Goffin	3:0 ✺
26.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	3:1 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 W?WWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Barcelona
21.04.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Jannik Sinner	Musetti L. walkover
ATP Monte Carlo
14.04.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Jannik Sinner	0:2
ATP Antwerp
20.10.21	Jannik Sinner - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0

Jannik Sinner - Lorenzo Musetti