Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday


	Lorenzo Musetti		Nikoloz Basilashvili

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.31	3.79
	1.32	3.26	Watch
	1.31	3.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.35)	3.52 ↑ (3.31)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
72.9%

Nikoloz Basilashvili
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.1%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Nikoloz Basilashvili has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nikoloz Basilashvili than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	0%	61.5%

Lorenzo Musetti - Nikoloz Basilashvili Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Musetti will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Basilashvili will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Basilashvili: 40% – 93.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Basilashvili (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nikoloz Basilashvili will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Basilashvili (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 9. Basilashvili is ranked ATP: 114.

Musetti is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Basilashvili is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Musetti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Musetti is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Chengdu
20.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Dino Prizmic	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
03.09.25	Jannik Sinner - Lorenzo Musetti	3:0 ✺
01.09.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Flavio Cobolli	Cobolli F. retired ✺
28.08.25	Lorenzo Musetti - David Goffin	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLW?W
- Nikoloz Basilashvili
ATP Chengdu
20.09.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
18.09.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Sebastian Baez	Canceled ✺
18.09.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Billy Harris	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Bernard Tomic - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
16.09.25	Rei Sakamoto - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 W?WWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Lorenzo Musetti	3:1
ATP Paris
02.11.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0
ATP Stuttgart
08.06.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2

Lorenzo Musetti - Nikoloz Basilashvili: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide