Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Costa do Sauipe, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday


	Gonzalo Bueno		Mateus Alves

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.7	2.04	Watch
	1.53	2.52
	1.68	2.05	Watch
	1.69	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.57)	2.16 ↓ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gonzalo Bueno
56.6%

Mateus Alves
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gonzalo Bueno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Mateus Alves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gonzalo Bueno than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mateus Alves than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Gonzalo Bueno - Mateus Alves Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bueno (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Bueno (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gonzalo Bueno will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bueno (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bueno is ranked ATP: 220. Alves is ranked ATP: 419.

Recent performances by Bueno have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alves is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Alves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bueno will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Bueno won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Mateus Alves - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.1%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gonzalo Bueno
ATP Challenger
17.10.25	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Gonzalo Bueno	2:0 ✺
16.10.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
14.10.25	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo - Gonzalo Bueno	0:2 ✺
13.10.25	Hady Habib - Gonzalo Bueno	Canceled ✺
11.10.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWW?L
- Mateus Alves
ATP Challenger
20.10.25	Nicolas Kicker - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
19.10.25	Ryan Augusto Dos Santos - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
14.10.25	Hugo Dellien - Mateus Alves	2:1 ✺
13.10.25	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
13.10.25	Enzo Camargo Lima - Mateus Alves	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
22.10.24	Mateus Alves - Gonzalo Bueno	2:0

Gonzalo Bueno - Mateus Alves: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide