Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: London, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 June 2025, Monday


	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.29	3.75	Watch
	1.22	4.2	Watch
	1.27	4.04
			Watch
	1.25	4	Watch
	1.28	3.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.39)	3.94 ↑ (3.03)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune
75.7%

Matteo Arnaldi
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.3%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune's performance.

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matteo Arnaldi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Arnaldi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Rune will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rune (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Arnaldi (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Arnaldi (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Games - Rune (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Rune (votes: 2 - 50%). Arnaldi (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rune is ranked ATP: 9. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 41.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Rune may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Rune is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rune won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune
ATP Roland Garros
01.06.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	3:1 ✺
30.05.25	Quentin Halys - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	2:3 ✺
28.05.25	Emilio Nava - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:3 ✺
26.05.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	1:3 ✺
ATP Roma
11.05.25	Corentin Moutet - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWWWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Stuttgart
09.06.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Jan-Lennard Struff	0:2 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
29.05.25	Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Arnaldi	3:1 ✺
27.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Felix Aliassime-Auger	3:2 ✺
ATP Geneva
22.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic	0:2 ✺
21.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Paris
29.10.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:2

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