Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 29 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max
Croatia	Max
Czech-republic	Max
Denmark	Max
Finland	Max
France	France TV Rolan Garros, Max
Hungary	Max
Norway	MAX
Poland	Max
Romania	Max
Serbia	Max
Slovenia	Max
Sweden	Max
Usa	Max


	Flavio Cobolli		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.72	2.1
	1.73	2.12	Watch
	1.83	2.09
	1.75	2.08	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.73	2.11	Watch
	1.73	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.76)	2.12 ↑ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flavio Cobolli
54.9%

Matteo Arnaldi
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flavio Cobolli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flavio Cobolli than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	0%	27.8%

Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Cobolli will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cobolli: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Cobolli (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Arnaldi (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Cobolli is ranked ATP: 26. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 36.

Cobolli is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Arnaldi's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cobolli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Cobolli will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cobolli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flavio Cobolli
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.25	Marin Cilic - Flavio Cobolli	0:3 ✺
ATP Hamburg
24.05.25	Andrey Rublev - Flavio Cobolli	0:2 ✺
23.05.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
22.05.25	Flavio Cobolli - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
21.05.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Flavio Cobolli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWWWW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Felix Aliassime-Auger	3:2 ✺
ATP Geneva
22.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic	0:2 ✺
21.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
19.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Roberto Bautista-Agut	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Umag
26.07.23	Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2
ATP Challenger
01.08.22	Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2
26.05.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Flavio Cobolli	2:1
13.10.21	Matteo Arnaldi - Flavio Cobolli	1:2

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