Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Stuttgart, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 June 2025, Monday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Jan-Lennard Struff

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.78	2
	1.75	1.95	Watch
	1.89	1.89	Watch
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.82	2.02	Watch
	1.77	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.62)	1.98 ↓ (2.3)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
52.4%

Jan-Lennard Struff
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Arnaldi's form might have worsened.

Jan-Lennard Struff has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jan-Lennard Struff's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan-Lennard Struff than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jan-Lennard Struff, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.6%	0%	41.4%

Matteo Arnaldi - Jan Lennard Struff Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 17 - 58.6%). Struff will win (votes: 12 - 41.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 40.7% – 76.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Struff (votes: 6 - 46.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 36. Struff is ranked ATP: 87.

In recent matches, Arnaldi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Struff is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Struff may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Arnaldi could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Arnaldi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Arnaldi - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 58.67%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Roland Garros
29.05.25	Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Arnaldi	3:1 ✺
27.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Felix Aliassime-Auger	3:2 ✺
ATP Geneva
22.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic	0:2 ✺
21.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
19.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWLWW
- Jan-Lennard Struff
ATP Roland Garros
26.05.25	Sebastian Ofner - Jan-Lennard Struff	3:1 ✺
ATP Hamburg
19.05.25	Jan-Lennard Struff - Justin Engel	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.25	Yoshihito Nishioka - Jan-Lennard Struff	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
30.04.25	Miomir Kecmanovic - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.8 LL?LL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
07.10.23	Jan-Lennard Struff - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2
ATP Challenger
04.11.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Jan-Lennard Struff	1:2

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