Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 27 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max
Croatia	Max
Czech-republic	Max
Denmark	Max
Finland	Max
France	France TV Rolan Garros, Max
Hungary	Max
Norway	MAX
Poland	Max
Romania	Max
Serbia	Max
Slovenia	Max
Sweden	Max
Usa	Max


	Matteo Arnaldi		Felix Aliassime-Auger

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.91	1.85
	2.04	1.79
	2.04	1.86
	1.96	1.84	Watch
	2	1.8
	2.03	1.79	Watch
	2.04	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.24)	1.82 ↑ (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
47.5%

Felix Aliassime-Auger
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

58.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Felix Aliassime-Auger has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Felix Aliassime-Auger might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felix Aliassime-Auger than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Felix Aliassime-Auger could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	0%	31.8%

Matteo Arnaldi - Felix Aliassime Auger Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Aliassime-Auger will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Aliassime-Auger (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 39. Aliassime-Auger is ranked ATP: 30.

In recent matches, Arnaldi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aliassime-Auger is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Aliassime-Auger may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Aliassime-Auger will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Felix Aliassime-Auger - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.28%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Geneva
22.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic	0:2 ✺
21.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
19.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Roberto Bautista-Agut	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
01.05.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWLL
- Felix Aliassime-Auger
ATP Hamburg
23.05.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
22.05.25	Alexandre Muller - Felix Aliassime-Auger	1:2 ✺
21.05.25	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2 ✺
20.05.25	Daniel Altmaier - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Thiago Seyboth Wild	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWW?

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