Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome (Italy), clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Referee: Allensworth G. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Sport 2
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Hubert Hurkacz		Rafael Nadal

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.75
	2.05	1.78	Watch
	2.06	1.84
	2.11	1.81
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.03	1.79	Watch
	2.01	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.41)	1.79 ↓ (2.94)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubert Hurkacz
46.6%

Rafael Nadal
53.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.6%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.1%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubert Hurkacz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hubert Hurkacz's form might have worsened.

Rafael Nadal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rafael Nadal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (+22.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hubert Hurkacz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Nadal than the current prediction. (-22.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rafael Nadal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
59.6%	1.8%	38.6%

Hubert Hurkacz - Rafael Nadal Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Hurkacz will win (votes: 33 - 60%). Nadal will win (votes: 22 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hurkacz: 47.1% – 72.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Hurkacz is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nadal is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Hurkacz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Hurkacz will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Hubert Hurkacz - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 67.59%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Madrid
30.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
28.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Daniel Altmaier	2:0 ✺
26.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Jack Draper	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
10.04.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWLW
- Rafael Nadal
ATP Roma
09.05.24	Zizou Bergs - Rafael Nadal	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
30.04.24	Rafael Nadal - Jiri Lehecka	0:2 ✺
29.04.24	Rafael Nadal - Pedro Cachin	2:1 ✺
27.04.24	Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal	0:2 ✺
25.04.24	Darwin Blanch - Rafael Nadal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWWW

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