Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 April 2024, Tuesday

Referee: Gabas A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Hungary	Match 4
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Rafael Nadal		Jiri Lehecka

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.87	1.9	Watch
	1.95	1.85	Watch
	2.02	1.89
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.93	1.88	Watch
	1.94	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.63)	1.9 ↓ (2.23)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Nadal
49.6%

Jiri Lehecka
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Nadal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rafael Nadal's form might have worsened.

Jiri Lehecka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jiri Lehecka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Nadal than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rafael Nadal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jiri Lehecka than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jiri Lehecka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.1%	0%	65.9%

Rafael Nadal - Jiri Lehecka Predictions

Users Predictions: 87 users predict this event. Nadal will win (votes: 29 - 33.3%). Lehecka will win (votes: 58 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lehecka: 56.8% – 76.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nadal is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Lehecka is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nadal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Nadal
ATP Madrid
29.04.24	Rafael Nadal - Pedro Cachin	2:1 ✺
27.04.24	Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal	0:2 ✺
25.04.24	Darwin Blanch - Rafael Nadal	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.24	Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal	2:0 ✺
16.04.24	Flavio Cobolli - Rafael Nadal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWLW
- Jiri Lehecka
ATP Madrid
29.04.24	Jiri Lehecka - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
27.04.24	Jiri Lehecka - Hamad Medjedovic	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
24.03.24	Jiri Lehecka - Alexei Popyrin	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
14.03.24	Jiri Lehecka - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
12.03.24	Jiri Lehecka - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLLW

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