Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Vancouver, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 July 2026, Tuesday


	Jack Pinnington Jones		Toby Samuel

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.90	1.36
	2.8	1.38
	3	1.44
	2.79	1.38	Watch
	2.95	1.41	Watch
	2.85	1.37	Watch
	2.8	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.75)	1.39 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jack Pinnington Jones
32.7%

Toby Samuel
67.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

63.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jack Pinnington Jones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Toby Samuel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jack Pinnington Jones than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Jack Pinnington Jones - Toby Samuel Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Samuel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Toby Samuel will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pinnington Jones is ranked ATP: 171. Samuel is ranked ATP: 127.

Recent form of Pinnington Jones has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Samuel is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Pinnington Jones may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Samuel might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Samuel will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Toby Samuel - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 66.27%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jack Pinnington Jones
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.26	Brandon Nakashima - Jack Pinnington Jones	3:0 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
24.06.26	Jack Draper - Jack Pinnington Jones	2:0 ✺
22.06.26	Jack Pinnington Jones - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Canceled ✺
ATP London
15.06.26	Jack Pinnington Jones - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.06.26	Filippo Romano - Jack Pinnington Jones	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.8 LL?LL
- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
26.07.26	Liam Draxl - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
25.07.26	Charles Broom - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
24.07.26	Yu Hsiou Hsu - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
22.07.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Mikael Arseneault - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWWW

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