Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Winnipeg, hard - Final

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday


	Liam Draxl		Toby Samuel

	1	2
	2.55	1.45
	2.65	1.43
	2.75	1.49
	2.65	1.42	Watch
	2.7	1.47
	2.62	1.43	Watch
	2.6	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (2.79)	1.44 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liam Draxl
35.3%

Toby Samuel
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

66.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

63.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liam Draxl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Toby Samuel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liam Draxl than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

Liam Draxl - Toby Samuel Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Draxl will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Samuel will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Samuel: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Draxl (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Samuel (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Draxl is ranked ATP: 244. Samuel is ranked ATP: 127.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Samuel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Samuel is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Samuel will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Toby Samuel - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 66.49%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liam Draxl
ATP Challenger
25.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
24.07.26	Liam Draxl - Clement Chidekh	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	August Holmgren - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
21.07.26	Millen Hurrion - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
17.07.26	Liam Draxl - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWWL
- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
25.07.26	Charles Broom - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
24.07.26	Yu Hsiou Hsu - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
22.07.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Mikael Arseneault - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.26	Jakub Mensik - Toby Samuel	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWWL

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