Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Olbia, hard - Final

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Olbia 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Jacob Fearnley		Damir Dzumhur

	1	2
	1.36	3.00	Watch
	1.36	2.90
	1.36	3.05
	1.31	3.21	Watch
	1.36	3.25
	1.35	2.94	Watch
	1.34	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.4)	3.04 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacob Fearnley
69.2%

Damir Dzumhur
30.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.3%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Damir Dzumhur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jacob Fearnley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Damir Dzumhur than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Damir Dzumhur could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jacob Fearnley - Damir Dzumhur Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fearnley is ranked ATP: 96., and Dzumhur is ranked ATP: 103..

Fearnley has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Dzumhur is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Dzumhur could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Fearnley carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Our forecast points to a victory for Fearnley in today's match, at odds of 1.36.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Fearnley has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:2 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Damir Dzumhur - the odds 2.76 are the expected chance of winning is 33.65%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Challenger
17.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
16.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Maxim Mrva	2:0 ✺
15.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Jan Kumstat	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - George Loffhagen	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Daniil Glinka	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWW?
- Damir Dzumhur
ATP Challenger
17.10.26	Maks Kasnikowski - Damir Dzumhur	0:2 ✺
16.10.26	Tom Gentzsch - Damir Dzumhur	0:2 ✺
15.10.26	Dimitar Kuzmanov - Damir Dzumhur	1:2 ✺
13.10.26	Aziz Dougaz - Damir Dzumhur	1:2 ✺
08.10.26	Damir Dzumhur - Abedallah Shelbayh	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Jacob Fearnley - Damir Dzumhur	2:0
ATP Athens
03.11.25	Damir Dzumhur - Jacob Fearnley	2:0

Jacob Fearnley - Damir Dzumhur