Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Olbia, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay


	Jacob Fearnley		Luca Nardi

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.34	3	Watch
	1.34	3	Watch
	1.33	2.85
	1.33	3.05	Watch
	1.33	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.45)	2.98 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacob Fearnley
69%

Luca Nardi
31%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.5%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jacob Fearnley's performance.

Luca Nardi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Nardi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jacob Fearnley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luca Nardi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Jacob Fearnley - Luca Nardi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fearnley is ranked ATP: 96., and Nardi is ranked ATP: 251..

Both players look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

Nardi could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Fearnley for this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Fearnley has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Challenger
16.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Maxim Mrva	2:0 ✺
15.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Jan Kumstat	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - George Loffhagen	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Daniil Glinka	Canceled ✺
01.10.26	Inaki Montes De La Torre - Jacob Fearnley	Fearnley J. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWW??
- Luca Nardi
ATP Challenger
16.10.26	Michael Mmoh - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
14.10.26	Luca Nardi - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Luca Nardi - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
05.10.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.26	Luca Nardi - Federico Cina	Nardi L. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
10.06.26	Luca Nardi - Jacob Fearnley	1:2

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Brussels
19.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Hugo Gaston	✺
ATP Challenger
16.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Maxim Mrva	✺
- Luca Nardi
ATP Challenger
16.10.26	Michael Mmoh - Luca Nardi	✺

Jacob Fearnley - Luca Nardi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide