Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 29 April 2025, Tuesday


	Jakub Mensik		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.36	3.1	Watch
	1.34	3.3	Watch
	1.34	3.54
	1.37	3.05	Watch
	1.33	3.3	Watch
	1.35	3.24	Watch
	1.34	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.32)	3.28 ↓ (3.34)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jakub Mensik
70.9%

Alexander Bublik
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.7%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.1%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jakub Mensik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Jakub Mensik - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Mensik will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). Bublik will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mensik: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Mensik (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Bublik (votes: 8 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Mensik (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -3.5 Games - Mensik (1.94) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 2nd Set - Mensik (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Mensik (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Mensik (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Bublik (votes: 8 - 44.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mensik is ranked ATP: 23. Bublik is ranked ATP: 75.

Instantly two players are in a excellent shape.

Bublik could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Mensik is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Mensik won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jakub Mensik
ATP Madrid
27.04.25	Ben Shelton - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
25.04.25	Ethan Quinn - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Yannick Hanfmann - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
30.03.25	Jakub Mensik - Novak Djokovic	2:0 ✺
28.03.25	Jakub Mensik - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WWLWW
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Madrid
27.04.25	Alexander Bublik - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
25.04.25	Alexei Popyrin - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
23.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Zizou Bergs - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Alexander Bublik - Diego Dedura-Palomero	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Rotterdam
04.02.25	Alexander Bublik - Jakub Mensik	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Jakub Mensik - Alexander Bublik	2:3

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