Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday


	Alex Michelsen		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.95	1.83	Watch
	1.93	1.88	Watch
	1.95	1.93
	1.93	1.85	Watch
	1.95	1.85	Watch
	1.95	1.85	Watch
	1.93	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.58)	1.87 ↓ (2.17)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
49.1%

Alexander Bublik
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alex Michelsen's form might have worsened.

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alexander Bublik's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Michelsen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alexander Bublik, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Alex Michelsen - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Bublik (2.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alexander Bublik will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alexander Bublik will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 14 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 38. Bublik is ranked ATP: 75.

Both players are now playing unstable.

Michelsen could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Houston
04.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
03.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
31.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Daniil Medvedev	Michelsen A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWL?
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Zizou Bergs - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Alexander Bublik - Diego Dedura-Palomero	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	Alexander Bublik - Alexander Ritschard	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.25	Dusan Lajovic - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWWLL

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