Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mexico City, clay - Final

Date: 13 April 2026, Monday


	James Duckworth		Stefano Napolitano

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
			Watch
	1.9	1.75	Watch
	2.02	1.87
	1.92	1.78	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.86	1.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.56)	1.81 ↓ (2.26)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

James Duckworth
48.7%

Stefano Napolitano
51.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

James Duckworth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that James Duckworth's form might have worsened.

Stefano Napolitano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stefano Napolitano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for James Duckworth than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for James Duckworth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Napolitano than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stefano Napolitano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	0%	53.8%

James Duckworth - Stefano Napolitano Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Duckworth will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Napolitano will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napolitano: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Duckworth is ranked ATP: 86. Napolitano is ranked ATP: 302.

Duckworth is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Napolitano is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Napolitano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Duckworth could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Duckworth will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Duckworth won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

James Duckworth - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 59.16%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- James Duckworth
ATP Challenger
11.04.26	James Duckworth - Tibo Colson	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	James Duckworth - Beibit Zhukayev	2:1 ✺
08.04.26	James Duckworth - Stefan Kozlov	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	James Duckworth - Michael Mmoh	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	James Duckworth - Nicolas Mejia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWWW
- Stefano Napolitano
ATP Challenger
11.04.26	Luka Pavlovic - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
10.04.26	Stefano Napolitano - Tristan Schoolkate	2:1 ✺
08.04.26	Matias Soto - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Andres Martin - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Facundo Mena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
21.03.19	Stefano Napolitano - James Duckworth	2:1

James Duckworth - Stefano Napolitano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide