Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Troyes, clay - Final

Date: 6 July 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Jan Choinski		Calvin Hemery

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.75	1.98	Watch
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.73	2.17
			Watch
			Watch
	1.74	2	Watch
	1.88	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.88)	2 ↑ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jan Choinski
53.3%

Calvin Hemery
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Choinski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Calvin Hemery has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jan Choinski that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calvin Hemery than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Calvin Hemery could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Jan Choinski - Calvin Hemery Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Choinski (votes: 1 - 50%). Hemery (votes: 1 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Jan Choinski will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Choinski is ranked ATP: 200. Hemery is ranked ATP: 178.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Choinski may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Choinski won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
05.07.25	Marco Trungelliti - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
04.07.25	Jan Choinski - Harold Mayot	2:0 ✺
02.07.25	Jan Choinski - Branko Djuric	2:0 ✺
30.06.25	Jan Choinski - Theo Papamalamis	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
23.06.25	Jan Choinski - Mark Lajal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWWL
- Calvin Hemery
ATP Challenger
05.07.25	Jacopo Berrettini - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
04.07.25	Javier Barranco Cosano - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
03.07.25	Mika Brunold - Calvin Hemery	1:2 ✺
01.07.25	Kalin Ivanovski - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
23.06.25	James Kent Trotter - Calvin Hemery	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
12.11.20	Calvin Hemery - Jan Choinski	Hemery C. retired

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