Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday


	Jelena Ostapenko		Elise Mertens

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.60	1.48
	2.6	1.51	Watch
	2.47	1.54	Watch
	2.6	1.52
	2.48	1.54	Watch
	2.6	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.27)	1.52 ↓ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jelena Ostapenko
37.1%

Elise Mertens
62.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jelena Ostapenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelena Ostapenko than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jelena Ostapenko, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elise Mertens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Jelena Ostapenko - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ostapenko will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Mertens will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ostapenko (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ostapenko is ranked WTA: 32., and Mertens is ranked WTA: 19..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Mertens is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Ostapenko has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Jelena Ostapenko - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.19%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jelena Ostapenko
WTA Beijing
03.10.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Paula Badosa	2:0 ✺
WTA Seoul
24.09.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Taylah Preston	0:2 ✺
22.09.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Anastasia Zakharova	2:0 ✺
WTA US Open
02.09.26	Tatjana Maria - Jelena Ostapenko	2:1 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
15.08.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Magdalena Frech	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWLL
- Elise Mertens
WTA Beijing
02.10.26	Katie Volynets - Elise Mertens	1:2 ✺
WTA Singapore
25.09.26	Elise Mertens - Maja Chwalinska	0:2 ✺
23.09.26	Elise Mertens - Barbora Krejcikova	Mertens E. win ✺
WTA US Open
05.09.26	Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens	2:1 ✺
03.09.26	Maria Timofeeva - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WL?LW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Luxembourg
17.10.19	Elise Mertens - Jelena Ostapenko	1:2

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