Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Naomi Osaka		Elise Mertens

	1	2
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.30	3.40
	1.32	3.29
	1.33	3.7
	1.28	3.84	Watch
	1.32	3.55
	1.33	3.47	Watch
	1.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↑ (1.3)	3.49 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naomi Osaka
72.7%

Elise Mertens
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.9%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.4%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naomi Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naomi Osaka than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Osaka will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Mertens will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Osaka (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Osaka (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Osaka is ranked WTA: 13. Mertens is ranked WTA: 20.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osaka won 3.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Osaka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Osaka is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Osaka won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 1.3:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naomi Osaka
WTA US Open
03.09.26	Naomi Osaka - Katerina Siniakova	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Naomi Osaka - Anastasia Zakharova	2:0 ✺
WTA Toronto
11.08.26	Naomi Osaka - Elena Rybakina	1:2 ✺
09.08.26	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
07.08.26	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW
- Elise Mertens
WTA US Open
03.09.26	Maria Timofeeva - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
01.09.26	Kaitlin Quevedo - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
WTA Monterrey
29.08.26	Diane Parry - Elise Mertens	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Nikola Bartunkova - Elise Mertens	1:2 ✺
27.08.26	Yulia Starodubtseva - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Toronto
07.08.26	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	0:2
WTA Bad Homburg
23.06.26	Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens	2:0
WTA Toronto
08.08.24	Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens	0:2
WTA Hertogenbosch
11.06.24	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	0:2
WTA Indian Wells
11.03.24	Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens	0:2
WTA Miami
29.03.21	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	0:2
WTA Melbourne Gippsland Trophy
05.02.21	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	Mertens E. walkover

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