Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Jenson Brooksby		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
			Watch
	1.53	2.47
	1.56	2.6
	1.65	2.23	Watch
			Watch
	1.55	2.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.71)	2.48 ↑ (2.05)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jenson Brooksby
61.4%

Luciano Darderi
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jenson Brooksby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jenson Brooksby's performance.

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luciano Darderi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jenson Brooksby than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jenson Brooksby that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luciano Darderi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Jenson Brooksby - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Brooksby will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Darderi will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brooksby: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jenson Brooksby will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Brooksby is ranked ATP: 86. Darderi is ranked ATP: 30.

Recent performances by Brooksby have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Darderi is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Darderi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Brooksby is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jenson Brooksby
ATP Tokyo
24.09.25	Ugo Humbert - Jenson Brooksby	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
28.08.25	Jenson Brooksby - Flavio Cobolli	2:3 ✺
25.08.25	Jenson Brooksby - Aleksandar Vukic	3:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.25	Karen Khachanov - Jenson Brooksby	2:0 ✺
10.08.25	Jenson Brooksby - Arthur Cazaux	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWLW
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Tokyo
24.09.25	Yoshihito Nishioka - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
19.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Andrea Pellegrino	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Tom Gentzsch	2:1 ✺
05.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWWW

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