Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday


	Alejandro Tabilo		Luciano Darderi

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.66	2.19	Watch
	1.68	2.31
	1.57	2.41	Watch
	1.68	2.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.98)	2.27 ↑ (1.71)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Tabilo
57.8%

Luciano Darderi
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Tabilo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alejandro Tabilo's performance.

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luciano Darderi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alejandro Tabilo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luciano Darderi than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luciano Darderi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Alejandro Tabilo - Luciano Darderi Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Tabilo will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Darderi will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tabilo: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Darderi (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tabilo is ranked ATP: 112. Darderi is ranked ATP: 30.

Tabilo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Darderi is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Tabilo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tabilo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Luciano Darderi - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 53.66%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Chengdu
18.09.25	Jordan Thompson - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
17.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Lloyd Harris	2:1 ✺
16.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Rigele Te	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Christopher OConnell - Alejandro Tabilo	O'Connell C. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWL?
- Luciano Darderi
ATP Challenger
07.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Andrea Pellegrino	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Tom Gentzsch	2:1 ✺
05.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
04.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Dmitry Popko	2:0 ✺
02.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Federico Arnaboldi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cincinnati
13.08.24	Alejandro Tabilo - Luciano Darderi	0:2
ATP Santiago
01.03.24	Alejandro Tabilo - Luciano Darderi	2:0
ATP Challenger
11.11.23	Luciano Darderi - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1
26.01.23	Luciano Darderi - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2

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