Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Jesper De Jong		Jakub Mensik

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.65	1.42	Watch
	2.86	1.46
	2.39	1.58	Watch
	2.78	1.46	Watch
	2.76	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (3.36)	1.46 ↑ (1.34)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jesper De Jong
35%

Jakub Mensik
65%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

71.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

72.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jesper De Jong has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jesper De Jong's performance.

Jakub Mensik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jakub Mensik might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jesper De Jong than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jesper De Jong that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jakub Mensik could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Jesper De Jong - Jakub Mensik Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4 Games - De Jong (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jakub Mensik will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jakub Mensik will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. De Jong (votes: 2 - 40%). Mensik (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

De Jong is ranked ATP: 79. Mensik is ranked ATP: 19.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

De Jong may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mensik is the team to beat.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jesper De Jong
ATP Shanghai
02.10.25	Yi Zhou - Jesper De Jong	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
24.09.25	Adrian Mannarino - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Tristan Schoolkate - Jesper De Jong	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.25	Jesper De Jong - Francisco Cerundolo	Canceled ✺
12.09.25	Jesper De Jong - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLW?L
- Jakub Mensik
ATP Beijing
29.09.25	Alex De Minaur - Jakub Mensik	Mensik J. retired ✺
27.09.25	Arthur Cazaux - Jakub Mensik	1:2 ✺
25.09.25	Miomir Kecmanovic - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
21.09.25	Jakub Mensik - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	Jakub Mensik - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 ?WWLW

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