Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Grandstand (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Jiri Lehecka		Stefanos Tsitsipas

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.57	2.35
	1.52	2.46
	1.6	2.58
	1.55	2.52	Watch
	1.56	2.5
	1.59	2.39	Watch
	1.54	2.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.4)	2.47 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 40.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jiri Lehecka
61.4%

Stefanos Tsitsipas
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.5%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jiri Lehecka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jiri Lehecka's form might have worsened.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stefanos Tsitsipas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jiri Lehecka than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jiri Lehecka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefanos Tsitsipas than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stefanos Tsitsipas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	0%	36.4%

Jiri Lehecka - Stefanos Tsitsipas Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Lehecka will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Tsitsipas will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lehecka: 35.2% – 92%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Lehecka (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jiri Lehecka will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Lehecka (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Lehecka is ranked ATP: 19. Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 53.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tsitsipas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lehecka will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Lehecka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jiri Lehecka
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Jiri Lehecka - Toby Samuel	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:1 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
08.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWL
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Lloyd Harris - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:3 ✺
31.08.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Arthur Fils	3:1 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
26.08.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
24.08.26	Jenson Brooksby - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Antwerp
18.10.24	Jiri Lehecka - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.24	Jiri Lehecka - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0
ATP Australian Open
24.01.23	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Jiri Lehecka	3:0
ATP Rotterdam
12.02.22	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Jiri Lehecka	2:1

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