Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Grandstand (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Jiri Lehecka		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.2	4.5	Watch
	1.21	4.25
	1.2	4.32
	1.23	4.6
	1.23	4.02	Watch
	1.22	4.5
	1.21	4.54	Watch
	1.21	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.32)	4.4 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 36.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jiri Lehecka
78.4%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

73.5%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jiri Lehecka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jiri Lehecka than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jiri Lehecka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pablo Carreno-Busta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Jiri Lehecka - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Lehecka will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Lehecka is ranked ATP: 19. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 66.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Carreno Busta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lehecka is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lehecka won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jiri Lehecka
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
08.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
06.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alexander Blockx	2:0 ✺
04.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Vit Kopriva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Daniel Vallejo	Carreno-Busta P. Retired ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Andrey Rublev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Tomas Machac - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Valentin Royer	1:2 ✺
ATP Estoril
23.07.26	Luca Van Assche - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 ?LWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
25.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jiri Lehecka	3:0
ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jiri Lehecka	0:2

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