Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phoenix (USA), hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 March 2025, Thursday


	Joao Fonseca		Jan-Lennard Struff

	1	2
	1.3	3.4	Watch
	1.42	2.65	Watch
	1.29	3.25	Watch
	1.3	3.61
	1.3	3.43	Watch
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.31	3.26	Watch
	1.29	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.55)	3.26 ↑ (2.3)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Fonseca
71.2%

Jan-Lennard Struff
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Joao Fonseca's performance.

Jan-Lennard Struff has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jan-Lennard Struff might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Joao Fonseca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan-Lennard Struff than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jan-Lennard Struff could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Joao Fonseca - Jan Lennard Struff Predictions

Users Predictions: Joao Fonseca will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fonseca is ranked ATP: 80. Struff is ranked ATP: 46.

Recent matches Fonseca is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Struff is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fonseca could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Fonseca will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Fonseca
ATP Challenger
12.03.25	Pavel Kotov - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.25	Jack Draper - Joao Fonseca	2:0 ✺
06.03.25	Jacob Fearnley - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
18.02.25	Joao Fonseca - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
16.02.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWLW
- Jan-Lennard Struff
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.25	Jan-Lennard Struff - Gael Monfils	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.25	Daniil Medvedev - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:0 ✺
ATP Doha
18.02.25	Jan-Lennard Struff - Tallon Griekspoor	0:2 ✺
ATP Marseille
14.02.25	Daniil Medvedev - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:0 ✺
13.02.25	Jan-Lennard Struff - Hugo Grenier	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW

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