Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phoenix (USA), hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday


	Hugo Gaston		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	4.33	1.2	Watch
	3.8	1.22	Watch
	4	1.2	Watch
	4.09	1.25
	4.08	1.23	Watch
	4	1.22	Watch
	3.9	1.23	Watch
	4	1.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.03 ↑ (3.23)	1.22 ↓ (1.3)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hugo Gaston
23.2%

Joao Fonseca
76.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

71.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

70.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hugo Gaston's form might have worsened.

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Joao Fonseca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hugo Gaston, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Joao Fonseca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hugo Gaston - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gaston is ranked ATP: 93. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 80.

Gaston is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Fonseca is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fonseca could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fonseca is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hugo Gaston
ATP Challenger
13.03.25	Reilly Opelka - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
12.03.25	Adam Walton - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.25	Hubert Hurkacz - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
06.03.25	Luciano Darderi - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
04.03.25	Hugo Gaston - Eliot Spizzirri	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWLWW
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Challenger
13.03.25	Joao Fonseca - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
12.03.25	Pavel Kotov - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.25	Jack Draper - Joao Fonseca	2:0 ✺
06.03.25	Jacob Fearnley - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
18.02.25	Joao Fonseca - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWL

Hugo Gaston - Joao Fonseca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide