Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Vicenza, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 May 2025, Wednesday


	Joel Schwaerzler		Gonzalo Bueno

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	2	1.84
	1.89	1.87	Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.95	1.78	Watch
	1.88	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.55)	1.83 ↓ (2.27)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joel Schwaerzler
48.9%

Gonzalo Bueno
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Joel Schwaerzler's form might have worsened.

Gonzalo Bueno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gonzalo Bueno's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Joel Schwaerzler, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gonzalo Bueno than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gonzalo Bueno, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Joel Schwaerzler - Gonzalo Bueno Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Schwaerzler will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Bueno will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schwaerzler: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Joel Schwaerzler will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 486. Bueno is ranked ATP: 328.

Schwaerzler is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bueno has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bueno may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Schwaerzler won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Gonzalo Bueno - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.59%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
26.05.25	Ivan Gakhov - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
25.05.25	Gabriele Piraino - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
22.05.25	Jay Clarke - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
21.05.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Marat Sharipov	2:0 ✺
19.05.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Gonzalo Bueno	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWLWW
- Gonzalo Bueno
ATP Challenger
26.05.25	Borna Gojo - Gonzalo Bueno	1:2 ✺
25.05.25	Stefano Napolitano - Gonzalo Bueno	Napolitano S. retired ✺
19.05.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Gonzalo Bueno	2:0 ✺
14.05.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
12.05.25	Adrian Mannarino - Gonzalo Bueno	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 W?LLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
19.05.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Gonzalo Bueno	2:0

Joel Schwaerzler - Gonzalo Bueno: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide