Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Naples (Italy), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 March 2025, Monday


	Jozef Kovalik		Calvin Hemery

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.45	2.55
	1.5	2.51	Watch
	1.53	2.4	Watch
	1.45	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.67)	2.52 ↑ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jozef Kovalik
63%

Calvin Hemery
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jozef Kovalik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jozef Kovalik's performance.

Calvin Hemery has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Calvin Hemery might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jozef Kovalik than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jozef Kovalik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calvin Hemery than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Calvin Hemery could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Jozef Kovalik - Calvin Hemery Predictions

Users Predictions: Jozef Kovalik will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kovalik is ranked ATP: 127. Hemery is ranked ATP: 169.

Recent matches Kovalik is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hemery is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Hemery could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Jozef Kovalik - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.35%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jozef Kovalik
ATP Challenger
21.03.25	Enrico Dalla Valle - Jozef Kovalik	2:1 ✺
19.03.25	Zsombor Piros - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
17.03.25	Matej Dodig - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
03.03.25	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Jozef Kovalik	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
22.02.25	Marton Fucsovics - Jozef Kovalik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWLL
- Calvin Hemery
ATP Challenger
07.03.25	Guy Den Ouden - Calvin Hemery	Hemery C. retired ✺
05.03.25	Corentin Denolly - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
04.03.25	Yanki Erel - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
25.02.25	Calvin Hemery - Maximilian Neuchrist	Hemery C. retired ✺
24.02.25	Calvin Hemery - Mateus Alves	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 ?WW??

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