Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Naples (Italy), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 March 2025, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Naples (Italy) 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Jozef Kovalik		Calvin Hemery

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.45	2.55
	1.5	2.51	Watch
	1.53	2.4	Watch
	1.45	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.67)	2.52 ↑ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jozef Kovalik
63%

Calvin Hemery
37%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.3%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jozef Kovalik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jozef Kovalik's performance.

Calvin Hemery has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Calvin Hemery might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jozef Kovalik than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jozef Kovalik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calvin Hemery than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Calvin Hemery could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Jozef Kovalik - Calvin Hemery Predictions

Users Predictions: Jozef Kovalik will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kovalik is ranked ATP: 127. Hemery is ranked ATP: 169.

Recent matches Kovalik is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hemery is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Hemery could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jozef Kovalik
ATP Challenger
21.03.25	Enrico Dalla Valle - Jozef Kovalik	2:1 ✺
19.03.25	Zsombor Piros - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
17.03.25	Matej Dodig - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
03.03.25	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Jozef Kovalik	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
22.02.25	Marton Fucsovics - Jozef Kovalik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWLL
- Calvin Hemery
ATP Challenger
07.03.25	Guy Den Ouden - Calvin Hemery	Hemery C. retired ✺
05.03.25	Corentin Denolly - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
04.03.25	Yanki Erel - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
25.02.25	Calvin Hemery - Maximilian Neuchrist	Hemery C. retired ✺
24.02.25	Calvin Hemery - Mateus Alves	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 ?WW??

Jozef Kovalik - Calvin Hemery

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Who will win by Users?

Jozef Kovalik - Calvin Hemery Predictions

Preview

Form

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