Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Juncheng Shang		Arthur Cazaux

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
			Watch
	1.81	1.97	Watch
	1.99	1.91
	1.17	4.99	Watch
	1.85	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.32)	2.56 ↑ (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juncheng Shang
59.8%

Arthur Cazaux
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

59.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juncheng Shang has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Juncheng Shang's performance.

Arthur Cazaux has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arthur Cazaux might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juncheng Shang than the current prediction. (-20.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Juncheng Shang that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Cazaux than the current prediction. (+20.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arthur Cazaux could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Juncheng Shang - Arthur Cazaux Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Shang will win (votes: 12 - 80%). Cazaux will win (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shang: 59.8% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Juncheng Shang will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Shang is ranked ATP: 238. Cazaux is ranked ATP: 80.

Shang is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cazaux has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cazaux may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shang won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Cazaux - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 59.13%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juncheng Shang
ATP Chengdu
19.09.25	Juncheng Shang - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
17.09.25	Zizou Bergs - Juncheng Shang	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.25	Mattia Bellucci - Juncheng Shang	Shang J. retired ✺
ATP Cincinnati
07.08.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Juncheng Shang	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
27.07.25	Juncheng Shang - James Duckworth	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LW?LL
- Arthur Cazaux
ATP Beijing
24.09.25	Quentin Halys - Arthur Cazaux	Halys Q. retired ✺
23.09.25	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Arthur Cazaux	1:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
20.09.25	Corentin Moutet - Arthur Cazaux	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Arthur Cazaux - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
22.08.25	Arthur Cazaux - Jan-Lennard Struff	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 ?WLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Atlanta
23.07.23	Arthur Cazaux - Juncheng Shang	1:2

Juncheng Shang - Arthur Cazaux: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide