Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 22 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Guangzhou 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Keegan Smith		Fajing Sun

	1	2
			Watch
	1.50	2.40
	1.45	2.55	Watch
	1.45	2.55	Watch
	1.52	2.5
	1.47	2.5	Watch
	1.45	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.43)	2.51 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keegan Smith
63%

Fajing Sun
37%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.4%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.1%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Fajing Sun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fajing Sun than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Keegan Smith - Fajing Sun Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Smith (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 196., and Sun is ranked ATP: 296..

Smith has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Sun have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Sun could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Smith is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Smith has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Keegan Smith - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 64.43%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
20.10.26	Keegan Smith - Max Purcell	2:0 ✺
16.10.26	Martin Landaluce - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
14.10.26	Keegan Smith - Vit Kopriva	2:1 ✺
13.10.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
11.10.26	Keegan Smith - Yuquan Jin	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWW?
- Fajing Sun
ATP Challenger
20.10.26	Fajing Sun - Qian Sun	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Fajing Sun - Jie Cui	0:2 ✺
09.10.26	Fajing Sun - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
08.10.26	Fajing Sun - Kasidit Samrej	2:0 ✺
05.10.26	Fajing Sun - Aoran Wang	Wang A. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
26.04.22	Keegan Smith - Fajing Sun	2:0

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fajing Sun
ATP Challenger
29.10.26	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Fajing Sun	✺

Keegan Smith - Fajing Sun