Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 3, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday


	Lorenzo Carboni		Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

	1	2
	1.11	5.39	Watch
	1.83	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.83)	3.61 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Carboni
71.1%

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Carboni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Carboni's performance.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Juan Cruz Martin Manzano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (-26.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Carboni that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Cruz Martin Manzano than the current prediction. (+26.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Juan Cruz Martin Manzano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Carboni is ranked ATP: 470. Martin Manzano is ranked ATP: 575.

Recent performances by Carboni have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Martin Manzano is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Martin Manzano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Carboni is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carboni won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Carboni - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Carboni
ITF Tournaments
17.04.26	Francesco Forti - Lorenzo Carboni	1:2 ✺
16.04.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Niels McDonald	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Sebastiano Cocola	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Andrey Chepelev	1:2 ✺
08.04.26	Dakotah Bobo - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWLW
- Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
ITF Tournaments
17.04.26	Juan Cruz Martin Manzano - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:1 ✺
16.04.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Max Schoenhaus - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.03.26	Christoph Negritu - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	2:0 ✺
24.03.26	Lukas Neumayer - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWLL

Lorenzo Carboni - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide