Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)


	Lorenzo Giustino		Francesco Maestrelli

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.12	1.64	Watch
	2.07	1.72	Watch
	2.1	1.67
	2.17	1.7	Watch
	2.05	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.18)	1.68 ↑ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Giustino
44.2%

Francesco Maestrelli
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

56.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Giustino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Francesco Maestrelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Giustino than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Lorenzo Giustino - Francesco Maestrelli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Maestrelli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Francesco Maestrelli will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Giustino is ranked ATP: 212. Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 137.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Maestrelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Maestrelli will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Francesco Maestrelli - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 57.07%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Giustino
ATP Challenger
07.01.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Lorenzo Giustino	Schwaerzler J. J. walkover ✺
06.01.26	Akira Santillan - Lorenzo Giustino	0:2 ✺
05.01.26	Matthew Dellavedova - Lorenzo Giustino	0:2 ✺
27.11.25	Lorenzo Giustino - Andrej Martin	Giustino L. retired ✺
25.11.25	Lorenzo Giustino - Cezar Cretu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 ?WW?W
- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Hong Kong
03.01.26	Yi Zhou - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.11.25	Marko Topo - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Justin Engel	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Stefano Napolitano	2:0 ✺
20.11.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Buvaysar Gadamauri	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWWWW

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