Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: BASTAD (SWEDEN), CLAY - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 19 July 2023, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
France	beIN Sports
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Portugal	Sport TV
Romania	Prima Sport 2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Lorenzo Musetti		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.4	2.9
	1.42	2.9
	1.38	2.9
	1.42	3.11
	1.4	2.9	Watch
	1.38	3.04	Watch
	1.39	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.48)	2.96 ↑ (2.64)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
67.9%

Matteo Arnaldi
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.1%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Lorenzo Musetti - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Musetti will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Recent matches Musetti is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arnaldi is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Musetti will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Musetti won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Wimbledon
07.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Hubert Hurkacz	0:3 ✺
06.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar	3:0 ✺
03.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	3:0 ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
30.06.23	Andrey Rublev - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
29.06.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Bastad
18.07.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Emil Ruusuvuori	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
06.07.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:3 ✺
29.06.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Frederico Ferreira Silva	3:0 ✺
28.06.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Federico Gaio	2:0 ✺
26.06.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Juncheng Shang	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
14.05.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0
ATP Challenger
09.04.19	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2

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