Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.35	1.57	Watch
	2.4	1.55	Watch
	2.5	1.63
	2.37	1.58	Watch
	2.4	1.59
	2.39	1.59	Watch
	2.4	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (3.15)	1.57 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 24.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
39.5%

Francis Tiafoe
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

68.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Sonego's performance.

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francis Tiafoe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Sonego that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Lorenzo Sonego - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 88. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 23.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Sonego may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tiafoe might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sonego won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.26	Juncheng Shang - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Tallon Griekspoor	0:2 ✺
ATP Gstaad
15.07.26	Raphael Collignon - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
13.07.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Lorenzo Sonego	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLWL
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Montreal
06.08.26	Francis Tiafoe - Arthur Rinderknech	Tiafoe F. Retired ✺
04.08.26	Francis Tiafoe - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
ATP Washington
27.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Terence Atmane	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Alexander Bublik	2:3 ✺
02.07.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jan Choinski	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 ?WLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
08.10.23	Francis Tiafoe - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2
ATP Miami
27.03.23	Lorenzo Sonego - Francis Tiafoe	2:0
Davis Cup World Group
24.11.22	Lorenzo Sonego - Francis Tiafoe	2:0
ATP Paris
31.10.22	Lorenzo Sonego - Francis Tiafoe	0:2

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