Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Marcos Giron

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
			Watch
	1.85	1.85	Watch
	1.83	2.06
	1.89	1.91	Watch
	1.91	1.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.64)	1.93 ↓ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
50.7%

Marcos Giron
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Sonego's form might have worsened.

Marcos Giron has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marcos Giron's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Sonego, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marcos Giron than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marcos Giron, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Lorenzo Sonego - Marcos Giron Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Sonego will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Giron will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sonego: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Giron (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 44. Giron is ranked ATP: 50.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Sonego may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sonego won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Sonego - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 55.8%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Chengdu
18.09.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Tristan Schoolkate	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
20.08.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Jaume Munar	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Stefan Dostanic	2:1 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
11.08.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLWL
- Marcos Giron
ATP Chengdu
17.09.25	Marcos Giron - Ethan Quinn	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Marcos Giron	3:2 ✺
24.08.25	Mariano Navone - Marcos Giron	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
19.08.25	Mariano Navone - Marcos Giron	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
08.08.25	Marcos Giron - Alexander Blockx	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Metz
06.11.23	Marcos Giron - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2

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