Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Juan Manuel Cerundolo

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.48	2.6
	1.49	2.55	Watch
	1.63	2.27	Watch
			Watch
	1.51	2.6	Watch
	1.49	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.36)	2.51 ↓ (3.2)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
62.3%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.2%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Sonego's form might have worsened.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Juan Manuel Cerundolo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Sonego, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juan Manuel Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Juan Manuel Cerundolo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Lorenzo Sonego - Juan Manuel Cerundolo Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Sonego will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Cerundolo will win (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerundolo: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Cerundolo (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 44. Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 72.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sonego may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sonego is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Tristan Schoolkate	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
20.08.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Jaume Munar	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Stefan Dostanic	2:1 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
11.08.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
09.08.25	Zizou Bergs - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLW
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo
ATP Challenger
14.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Billy Harris - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	1:2 ✺
12.09.25	Daniel Evans - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Evans D. retired ✺
10.09.25	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Bar Biryukov P. retired ✺
08.09.25	Yuta Shimizu - Juan Manuel Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WW??W

Upcoming Matches