Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 February 2025, Wednesday


	Sebastian Baez		Mariano Navone

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.02	1.77	Watch
	2.09	1.83
	2.04	1.76	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.05	1.77	Watch
	2.02	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.9)	1.79 ↓ (1.9)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
46.8%

Mariano Navone
53.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	0%	19%

Sebastian Baez - Mariano Navone Predictions

Users Predictions: Sebastian Baez will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.15% – 97.75%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 31. Navone is ranked ATP: 46.

Recent matches Baez is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Navone is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Baez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Baez won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Rio de Janeiro
18.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Sumit Nagal	Canceled ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
12.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Thiago Seyboth Wild	0:2 ✺
11.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Hugo Dellien	1:2 ✺
07.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 ?LWLW
- Mariano Navone
ATP Rio de Janeiro
18.02.25	Mariano Navone - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
14.02.25	Joao Fonseca - Mariano Navone	2:1 ✺
13.02.25	Mariano Navone - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	2:0 ✺
10.02.25	Mariano Navone - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
31.01.25	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Mariano Navone	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Rio de Janeiro
25.02.24	Sebastian Baez - Mariano Navone	2:0

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