Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hong Kong, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 January 2026, Tuesday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Rei Sakamoto

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.45	2.7
	1.45	2.6	Watch
	1.46	2.65	Watch
	1.5	2.6
	1.46	2.78	Watch
	1.41	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.53)	2.69 ↑ (2.51)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
64.9%

Rei Sakamoto
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.1%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Rei Sakamoto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Lorenzo Sonego - Rei Sakamoto Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sonego will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Sakamoto will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sonego: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Sakamoto (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Sakamoto (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Sakamoto (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 40. Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 184.

Sakamoto is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sonego is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Sonego - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 62.13%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Metz
07.11.25	Cameron Norrie - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
06.11.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Daniel Altmaier	2:0 ✺
04.11.25	Flavio Cobolli - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
03.11.25	Jan Choinski - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
ATP Paris
30.10.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWWL
- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Challenger
22.11.25	Kaichi Uchida - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
21.11.25	Akira Santillan - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
20.11.25	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
18.11.25	Maxim Zhukov - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
17.11.25	Kasidit Samrej - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWW

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