Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Istanbul 2, hard - Final

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday


	Lucas Poullain		Ilia Simakin

	1	2
	2.70	1.40
	2.8	1.39
	3.07	1.44
	3	1.37
	3	1.39
	2.77	1.39	Watch
	2.8	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.33)	1.4 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lucas Poullain
32.7%

Ilia Simakin
67.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucas Poullain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lucas Poullain's form might have worsened.

Ilia Simakin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilia Simakin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucas Poullain than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lucas Poullain, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilia Simakin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lucas Poullain - Ilia Simakin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Poullain is ranked ATP: 500. Simakin is ranked ATP: 297.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Poullain may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Simakin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Simakin will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Ilia Simakin - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 60.62%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lucas Poullain
ATP Challenger
08.08.26	Lucas Poullain - Gijs Brouwer	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Lucas Poullain - Kenta Miyoshi	2:1 ✺
06.08.26	Lucas Poullain - Alexandr Binda	2:0 ✺
04.08.26	Dan Added - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
28.07.26	Dan Added - Lucas Poullain	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWWL
- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
08.08.26	Antoine Ghibaudo - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
07.08.26	Ilia Simakin - Florent Bax	2:1 ✺
05.08.26	Ilia Simakin - Fajing Sun	2:0 ✺
03.08.26	Ilia Simakin - Gabi Adrian Boitan	2:1 ✺
08.07.26	Ilia Simakin - Lautaro Midon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWL

Lucas Poullain - Ilia Simakin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide