Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday


	Madison Keys		Peyton Stearns

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.51	2.6	Watch
	1.58	2.49
	1.47	2.55	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.51	2.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.35)	2.51 ↓ (2.85)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madison Keys
61.9%

Peyton Stearns
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madison Keys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Madison Keys's form might have worsened.

Peyton Stearns has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peyton Stearns's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madison Keys than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peyton Stearns than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Madison Keys - Peyton Stearns Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Keys will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Stearns will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Keys: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Keys (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Keys is ranked WTA: 19. Stearns is ranked WTA: 49.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Stearns may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Keys could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Keys won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madison Keys
WTA Madrid
24.04.26	Madison Keys - Shuai Zhang	Canceled ✺
WTA Charleston
04.04.26	Madison Keys - Yulia Starodubtseva	0:2 ✺
03.04.26	Madison Keys - Belinda Bencic	0:2 ✺
02.04.26	Madison Keys - Anna Bondar	2:0 ✺
01.04.26	Madison Keys - Donna Vekic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 ?LLWW
- Peyton Stearns
WTA Roma
06.05.26	Peyton Stearns - Janice Tjen	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.04.26	Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov - Peyton Stearns	2:1 ✺
WTA Madrid
23.04.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Peyton Stearns	2:0 ✺
21.04.26	Peyton Stearns - Lois Boisson	2:0 ✺
WTA Charleston
02.04.26	Peyton Stearns - McCartney Kessler	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Roma
10.05.25	Madison Keys - Peyton Stearns	1:2
WTA Toronto
08.08.24	Peyton Stearns - Madison Keys	Stearns P. retired

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