Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Marco Trungelliti		Florent Bax

	1	2
	1.3	3.4	Watch
	1.27	3.45	Watch
	1.26	4.18
	1.25	3.58	Watch
	1.29	3.5
	1.27	3.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↑ (1.17)	3.59 ↓ (4.51)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
73.8%

Florent Bax
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79.4%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marco Trungelliti's form might have worsened.

Florent Bax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Florent Bax's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Marco Trungelliti - Florent Bax Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Trungelliti will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Bax will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 132. Bax is ranked ATP: 268.

Trungelliti is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bax is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Trungelliti may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Trungelliti is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Bax will win today's game, with odds of 4.5.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Trungelliti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Garrett Johns	2:1 ✺
ATP Dubai
21.02.26	Marco Trungelliti - Luca Nardi	1:2 ✺
ATP Doha
14.02.26	Marco Trungelliti - Billy Harris	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
08.02.26	Hyeon Chung - Marco Trungelliti	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Soon Woo Kwon - Marco Trungelliti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WLLLL
- Florent Bax
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Florent Bax - Gabriele Pennaforti	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Florent Bax - Denis Yevseyev	Bax F. retired ✺
30.01.26	Daniel Michalski - Florent Bax	2:0 ✺
28.01.26	Florent Bax - Marek Gengel	Gengel M. retired ✺
27.01.26	Florent Bax - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 W?L?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
01.07.25	Marco Trungelliti - Florent Bax	2:1

Marco Trungelliti - Florent Bax: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide