Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday


	Marcos Giron		Sebastian Korda

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
			Watch
	2.4	1.55
	2.42	1.62
	2.24	1.65	Watch
	2.39	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.16)	1.59 ↓ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marcos Giron
39.9%

Sebastian Korda
60.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marcos Giron has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Sebastian Korda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marcos Giron than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Korda than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Giron will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Korda will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Giron: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Giron (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Giron is ranked ATP: 50. Korda is ranked ATP: 79.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Giron may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Korda will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Giron won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marcos Giron
ATP Chengdu
21.09.25	Marcos Giron - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Marcos Giron	0:2 ✺
17.09.25	Marcos Giron - Ethan Quinn	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Marcos Giron	3:2 ✺
24.08.25	Mariano Navone - Marcos Giron	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWLW
- Sebastian Korda
ATP Hangzhou
20.09.25	Yibing Wu - Sebastian Korda	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Adam Walton - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.25	Cameron Norrie - Sebastian Korda	Korda S. retired ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
22.08.25	Sebastian Korda - Marton Fucsovics	Fucsovics M. walkover ✺
21.08.25	Sebastian Korda - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LW??W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Antwerp
19.10.22	Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda	1:2
ATP Challenger
28.01.20	Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda	1:2
19.04.19	Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda	2:0

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